MFL Win Probability Calculator

Download here


As per usual with Excel tools, this requires Excel for Windows and PowerQuery.

Original Reddit Post here

So I was bored one day at work and decided that it’d be fun to build a tool to estimate the likelihood of winning the remaining weeks of the season. This tool calculates the likelihood of winning any given game as:

Team All Play Win % / (Team AP% + Opponent AP%) = Win Probability %

Summing this up for the remainder of the season and added to the existing win totals gives us the win projection.

I thought this was a useful way to give some insight into the playoff picture at midseason in a somewhat systematic way. It also gave me some opportunity to shit-talk my leaguemates. :smirk: